The goal of our research is to use epidemiological modeling to better understand the dynamics of low-pathogneic avian influenza virus (LPAIv) in waterfowl populations. By combining laboratory and field data on infection, prevalence, and shedding patterns of AIv, we have been able to determine the rate of disease transmssion in wild poplations and how these factors might affect potential outbreaks of highly-pathogenic avian influenza (HPAIv). Our results show that better understanding of AIv transmission requires information on both current infection and previosu serological exposure of wild birds.
Hénaux, V., M. D. Samuel, J. Parmley, and C. Soos. 2013. Estimating transmission of avian influenza in wild birds from incomplete epizootic data: implications for surveillance and disease spread. Journal of Applied Ecology.
Wilson, H. M., J. S. Hall, P. L. Flint. C. J. Franson, C. R. Ely, J. Schmutz, and M. Samuel. 2013. High seroprevalence of antibodies to avian influenza viruses among wild waterfowl in Alaska: implications for surveillance. PLoS ONE.
Hénaux, V., M. D. Samuel, R. J. Dusek, J. P. Fleskes, and H. S. Ip. 2012. Presence of Avian Influenza Viruses in Waterfowl and Wetlands during Summer 2010 in California: Are Resident Birds a Potential Reservoir? PLoS ONE: e31471. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0031471
Henaux, V., and M. D. Samuel. 2011. Avian influenza shedding patterns in waterfowl: Implications for surveillance, environmental transmission, and disease spread. Journal of Wildlife Diseases 47:566-578.
Henaux, V., M.D. Samuel, and C.M. Bunck. Model-Based Evaluation of HP and LP Avian Influenza Dynamics in Wild Birds. PLoS ONE 5(6):e10997. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0010997